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Sunday, December 30, 2007
2007 in review The top news to finish of the year is the untimely death of Benazir Bhutto and subsequent unrest in the country. Now her young son is stepping up, which seems a bit nepotistic on the surface. I would post on that but I don't really know any more than what I've been reading in the papers. Big Hominid did his own year reminiscence and I will follow a similar format As for my year, its been pretty good I think. Job wise I think I have landed what is essentially my dream job. It doesn't pay the big bucks but there is room for advancement and the focus is heavily concentrated on my own personal areas of interest, notably Korea. Indeed, I should be making my first business trip to the Land of the Morning Calm early in 2008. 'Blogologically' speaking, 2007 continued the trend of fewer posts of which more are of questionable quality. There are reasons behind this (yes, one of the reasons is laziness) but as yet I haven't worked out a practical solution that will enable me to blog more regularly and do a better job of it. This doesn't mean I'm going to quit blogging. It just means that the trend may continue into 2008. Especially in the early part of 2008 during which time I have a few trips planned. I would imagine that blog traffic has been on a steady decline over the past few years at Kathreb with current numbers being me and a few friends who feel guilty if they don't visit occasionally. Fortunately, the motivation for this blog is not dependent on people reading it. Health wise it has been a better year than last, which is saying very little. I have managed to not lose any more weight but have also not managed to gain any. I have signed up for a 12 month gym membership to try and beef up and increase my appetite. I've been instructed to avoid spinning class and other calorie burning sessions. Related to the weight issue, I did a lot more shopping this year in order to discard my over-sized clothes for new, better-fitting clothes. I tend to be a bit tight fisted when it comes to spending, especially when things are overpriced. It should be noted that most women's clothing falls into the 'overpriced' category. However, I persevered and got a few nice items. In particular, I got a great pair of silver shoes:
Reading wise, I think this has been one of the worst years for reading for a long time. I had lots of things on my mind this year which prevented me from feeling relaxed enough to read. I also find that the London Tube gives me a headache due to the lack of air in those tunnels. This makes it very hard for me to read on the way to and from work, my main reading times. I now take the bus as much as possible and many of the things on my mind have been resolved so hopefully 2008 will prove better for reading. I am planning to read more Chinese literature in 2008. Televisually and cinematically speaking (as Kevin notes), I watch WAY TOO MUCH TV in London. This is due to the dynamic of my house situation. I have a big TV and people to watch TV with in a social environment which makes it difficult to resist. I've seen more movies at the cinema in London as well, but I count that as a good thing. Except Beowulf, which I saw in 3-D and count as a freakish and somewhat disturbing movie (bearing no relation to the poem). Although the 3-D aspect was cool. This past week I saw Enchantment and The Golden Compass. Both enjoyable. 2008: looking ahead: apart from the Chinese literature resolution, I also resolve to go out and party more, to spend more money on clothes and going out, and to explore Europe (since I'm so close).
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Monday, December 24, 2007
Death Penalty - Abolitionist in Practice South Korea, as of this week, has a defacto moratorium on the death penalty. This comes from having gone 10 years with no executions. Former President Kim Dae-Jung, himself a former death row inmate and pro-abolitionist, didn't over see any executions during his term. This trend was continued by President Roh. Despite this, South Korea abstained during the recent UN General Assembly vote for a global moratorium. And the Abolition Bill currently stalled in the Legislation and Judicial Committee looks almost certain to lapse between now and the Parliamentary election in April 2008. In this context the defacto moratorium is more a case of one step forward and stall. Merry Christmas For those to whom such sentiments may apply. Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Comfort Women The Marmot has a post on the European Parliament's resolution, calling on Japan to apologise for the military sexual slavery system.. This topic generated a fair bit of discussion at the Marmot's hole. But there were a few questions about how this resolution came about in the discussion. Either nobody knows the answer or didn't want to share. Certainly I didn't see it discussed after the question was posed. It seems a bit unrealistic to assume that the Parliamentarians decided to do this without any outside lobbying or influence. The focus on arguing that European countries should apologise for their own wrongs before pointing the finger at other countries, somehow failed to really push the debate to investigate why they did that. To help inform this point, this article from Japan provides some information. I'm not saying this article is entirely accurate because it is very biased. Moves behind the scenesAnother point that was lacking was that while most people know about the US House Resolution 121 and the recent Canadian motion 291, the Dutch also unanimously passed a resolution in November. Friday, December 14, 2007
Presidential Elections Not long now until South Korea chooses its next President. From most accounts it looks like Lee Myung Bak will be the chosen one. He is a bit too conservative for my liking and his support of the death penalty is certainly not welcome. I met him one time which is a small claim to fame I intend to drop like a lace hanky at a summer picnic if he gets elected. Other stuff There has been lots of stuff going on which I feel bad that I haven't been blogging about. I would recommend visiting the Two Koreas (see sidebar) for latest updates on repression of migrant workers in Korea. The six-party talks and general US-DPRK (non)-relations continue to be covered in depth at One Free Korea (see sidebar). Although OFK remains far more negative than myself on that topic. As for me, the unsettled nature of work and life has left me reluctant to blog until 'I have more time'. I should know better than to believe that there will ever be 'more time'. In my defense I am working one full time and one part time job at the moment. I am currently spending day three on my sick bed but can feel myself getting better. I hate that every time I blog now, its just a post to explain why I'm not blogging. Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Back in the UK The weekend in LA coincided with Australia's loss to England in the World Cup quarter finals. Followed quickly after by NZ's loss to France. Could a weekend be any worse? And after the semis we now have a South Africa v England final and France v Argentina in the third-place play off. The worst part is knowing that we have to wait 4 more years before the next Rugby World Cup. LAX airport proved to be much better than Heathrow - especially since the nonsensical one-bag-rule does not seem to be in place there. And Lufthansa had complimentary alcohol unlike their scrooge partners at United. Now that I am back 'home' I can start to think about catching up on Korea stuff and perhaps even blog on that topic - it is, after all, the supposed theme topic of the entire blog. Friday, October 05, 2007
Los Angeles I have had to take valuable time from watching the Rugby to make a quick trip to LA. Although no London to LA trip is really 'quick'. Long and tedious is a more accurate description. I flew on United Airlines. Could an airline be anymore cheapskate? Instead of hand towels before the meal we got one ply wet paper, one ply toilet paper in the restrooms, and worst, they were charging for alcohol!! No free drinks on international flights. I can only hope that other airlines are not going down the same tight-fisted, miserable path. I now officially HATE airports, especially heathrow. Could their staff BE any more surly? I have yet to discover how putting my unchecked toothpaste in a clear plastic bag does anything except add to global garbage pile of plastic bags. And the latest weird idea is the 'one bag rule' which seems to state that a traveller can only have one bag. So even though I might have a handbag and a laptop I have take my laptop out of its bag and carry it outside the bag so that I only have one bag! Regardless of the fact that other people will have one bag that is more than twice the size (and weight probably) of my two small bags. Not to mention that once through customs I am free to return the laptop to the bag and have my two bags. The only purpose of the one-bag rule is to really piss people off. Especially when you ask the security the reason for having to carrying a laptop outside a bag as opposed to inside a bag and they have NO answer. Friday, September 21, 2007
North Korea: Behind the headlines Last night Amnesty UK and Anti-Slavery International hosted a discussion evening. The first part of the evening was short snippet of a documentary (title not remembered) which covered some of the human rights problems in the DPRK. This was followed by a talk from Anti-Slavery about their latest report on forced labour in North Korean prison camps, a talk from Amnesty International on enforced disappearances, and finally a talk from Human Rights Watch on the food crisis and North Korea. Followed by Q&A which mostly focused on how to raise human rights concerns with the DPRK regime and how to ensure that any activism follows a 'no harm' approach which means that by raising an issue you are not putting those people at even greater risk than if you said nothing at all. Rugby World Cup The RWC has now been underway for about two weeks. Not surprisingly, Australia are doing very well so far. Our next match should be a good one against Fiji, which have been showing some nice style. Fiji's game against Wales will be very interesting on the 29th. Tonight is a critical match between France and Ireland, both teams have been a bit lacklustre so far. My support, if there was any doubt, is for Ireland. And on the topic of the RWC, the crucial matter of man-boobs should be discussed. In general the uniform styles this year are very much about emphasising the man-boobs of the players. In particular the Australian team have added a thick yellow stripe across their chests which outlines very clearly their man-boobs. I've also been looking at the arses of the Australian players very carefully and am engaged in a dispute with a fellow arse-watcher as to whether their shorts have different shades of green, specifically small dark green squares just below each cheek, or are the shorts a uniform colour? If anyone else has been closely observing the butts of the Australian Rugby team and has an opinion on this, I would be very interested to hear it. Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Rumours re South Korean hostage ransom Much is currently being writting on this at present. I may add a few more of my own opinions shortly. But for now, the Taleban is denying the rumours. Not sure how trustworthy they are though. Perhaps the deal is that they get the ransom as long as they keep it quiet. Or, perhaps, there is no ransom. Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Home sweet home The Taleban has agreed to release the remaining 19 South Korean hostages. Happy news for the families and general public and a huge relief, no doubt, to the South Korean negotiators and Administration. Especially given that South Korea's side of the bargain is to do what they were planning to do anyway, plus prohibit further escapades of South Korean Christian aid workers into hostile nations. Book review Crisis in North Korea: The failure of de-stalinization, 1956 by Andrei Lankov was much easier to read than I anticipated. I expected it to be interesting but somewhat dry. Kudos to Mr. Lankov for making an event we know very little about involving people we sometimes know even less about into something both readable and educational. Certainly much remains unknown about this event but the failure of de-stalinization in North Korea was clearly told and nicely placed into the wider picture of events in the Communist world at that time. I particularly liked that features of Communism in the 1950s and reference to events happening in other Communist nations at that time (Eastern Europe) were explained as a reference for how events/circumstances differed or were the same in North Korea. Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Ban lifted I have finished reading the final Harry Potter book. Hooray! In the month since I posted last things have been quite busy. I got the job that I applied for. Hooray! I attended the Festival of History. The highlight of which, for me, was the World War I fly boys and the Jousting tournament. And last weekend I attended a wedding. Crappy Korean weddings aside, I love weddings. Nice clothes, everyone's in a good mood, champagne, good food (huge leg of lamb per person in this case - I love lamb, and a melty, moist piece of chocolate pudding with double cream), dancing - its all good times. Korean news has been less pleasing of late with the unfortunate kidnapping in Afghanistan. I am informed (and it makes some sense) that because they are mostly women, they stand a slightly better chance of being released. This is partly evident by the fact that the two to have been killed so far were men. Of course, things are still very hairy at the moment and there are several ways things could pan out. And then there is the upcoming summit meeting between a lame duck and sick man. I haven't given this much thought but it is not immediately evident to me as to why Kim would waste his time meeting with Roh - I can't really see it having much influence on the upcoming election, probably have little impact on aid. It might just be for whatever amount of cash Roh is having to fork out for the meeting. Finally, with the lifing of the ban I took some time to visit a few Korean blogs and I would like to submit a request to The Marmot or more specifically, to Robert Koehler: This is something that has bothered me for qutie a while. I strongly urge you to put the name of the person posting at the top of the post and not at the bottom. There are some contributers I like and some I am less interested in. This means I have to scroll down for every post to check who wrote it before I decide to read it. This is very bothersome to me and I would guess that I am not the only one who selectively reads posts based on contributer. Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Self-imposed Internet Ban The latest and last Harry Potter is now out. I haven't read it yet and am very much afraid of spoilers. Especially given my tendency to scroll down and not fully read stuff on the internet. This leaves me very vulnerable to missing the sentence that warns people of spoilers ahead. Therefore, I am scaling back my internet surfing until after I've read the book - I'm third in line to borrow it so it could be a few weeks. That doesn't mean no blogging, it just means no blogging about news I got from the internet. Meanwhile, I am not in the flood area of the UK floods. I've seen some stuff on the tv news but there is no evidence of the catastrophe in my neighbourhood. In fact, its a lovely sunny day today and the washing is blowing softly as it dries on the outside line. Tuesday, July 10, 2007
North Korean big wig blows hot air Last week Chatham House hosted a talk by Ambassador Han of the Institute for Disarmament and Peace in Pyongyang. He gave a talk very similar to this piece by An Song Nam of the same Institute. After the talk there was a Q&A session. Now, as you can guess, everyone in the audience was keen to see if they could get this guy to say something remotely sane rather than the ridiculous diatribe he had spoken for his talk. It was not to be - he did not once acknowledge that perhaps, maybe on of the off-chance, there was another point of view to the one he had. The event at Chatham House strongly emphasised (to me) the argument in favour of not talking to these guys. It really seemed that it was a complete waste of time trying to talk, let alone negotiate with people like him. However, I do hold that talking is better than not talking. As I have argued earlier, even if you can't expect anything of the North Korean regime and its representatives, it is better to chat inanely with them than to provoke them. Also, there is NO WAY that guy doesn't know the other side of the argument. I would think that the more you engage and ask questions, the more likely it is that one day these representatives are seriously going to start thinking for themselves and hopefully thinking about the crimes they are complicit in by supporting the DPRK regime. Friday, June 29, 2007
Book update and excuse The currently reading part of the blog is now a bit out of date. I'd like to update but don't have much time at present. I finished The Eyre Affair and very good it was too. Then I read This is Paradise! My North Korean Childhood by Hyok Kang. Now I am on to the second Jasper Fforde book in the series, Lost in a Good Book. I might update that on the site later. However the reason for the lack of posts and updates for now is Wimbledon. I've always been a fan of tennis and since I have pretty flexible work hours I am spending most days watching the matches and then evenings doing work. This leaves little time for anything else. And with someone like Raphael Nadal running around in a sleeveless shirt, who can resist the overwhelming desire to watch more and more tennis? Although that doesn't mean I'm hoping he wins the championship - there are too many good players to choose a favourite based on looks only. Wednesday, June 20, 2007
Little bit o' background that you probably already know regarding the Japanese lawmakers' ad in the Wapo. The ad in the Wapo, title 'The Facts' and issued by a number of Japanese lawmakers is getting a lot of blog space. It seems there are a couple of questions as to why this one done. I have the obvious, probably already known answer. I mention it only because it hasn't been mentioned (that I've seen). The Facts was in response a full page Wapo add, titled 'The Truth About Comfort Women'. This add was published by a coalition on NGOs, mainly one called 121 and another working on comfort women issues in the US. The add has a contribution from Amnesty International which also sent letter to Bush. Sadly, I can't find a link to the original add. The Truth ad was timed to coincide with the visit from Shinzo Abe and to urge greater support for the resolution in Congress calling for the Japanese government to apologise for the military sexual slavery system during WWII. I would take a guess and say that given the rising support to the resolution prior to The Facts ad that it was an attempt to stymie progress on the resolution. Although, I think we can find evidence of the ad having a reverse effect. Last I heard the resolution looks set to be passed by a comfortable majority. North Koreans Testify in UK Yesterday two North Koreans, Ahn Myeong Cheol and Shin Dong Hyok testifed at Westminster in a public hearing. This was a moving experience, especially when it came to the the quiet and rather haunted looking Mr. Shin. The event was also joined with the launch of Christian Solidarity Worldwide's new report: "North Korea: A case to answer - a call to act". Ahn Myeong Cheol in particular urged strongly for the international community to be doing more to save the lives of those suffering in North Korea. Thursday, June 07, 2007
Are we not paying enough attention to the DPRK? North Korea has possibly shot a a few more short-range missiles in the Sea of Japan/East Sea. This comes just two weeks after they sent one short-range missile in the same direction at the end of May. Perhaps the DPRK felt that nobody paid enough attention to the first one. We shall have to see if South Korea will claim that this is also part of 'annual routine exercises' as a way to brush it off. There has been speculation in the past that the struggle between negotiators and hard-liners in the DPRK have led to similar confusing signals whereby shortly after signing a deal the North Koreans do something provocative and contradictory. This could be a similar case. Speculators also suggest that lack of communication between defence and foreign affairs departments mean they are working independent of activities in each others' departments. Although these activities clearly impact each others' interests. By now that the deadline to shut the reactor is so far past its deadline it is possible the agreement won't be revived. Add this to upcoming US elections and I would speculate that US-DPRK relations will now founder for some time to come. Tuesday, June 05, 2007
Pictures from Ireland As mentioned a bit ago, I travelled recently to Ireland. During our visit we embarked on a 3-day tour and below are some of the holiday pictures taken on tour.  Dramatic landscape in Ireland Me looking at stone tower at some abbey A castle of somekind Cliffs of Moher Some old ruin castle connected with Strongbow
Friday, May 25, 2007
North Korea fires missiles The BBC is reporting that North Korea has sent some short-range missiles hurling toward the Sea of Japan (or East Sea, whichever you prefer). That's all the info I have for now, but no doubt the speculation on what it means, why they did it, and what will happen now to the 'Agreement', will keep journalists, analysts and bloggers very busy over the next few days. And to add a bit of complexity in case you thought this was all too easy, the IHT tells us the DPRK is expecting mutual de-nuclearisation. The DPRK has said that denuclearisation also depended on the removal "of more than one thousand nuclear weapons deployed in and around North Korea under the U.S. nuclear umbrella and termination of the U.S. hostile policy toward (North Korea) and its nuclear threat as well."Throwing missiles into the sea, claiming to be committed to peace and demanding that US remove its nuclear umbrella in Asia - could they be any more self-contradicting? Monday, May 21, 2007
Happy Birthday to ME That's right, my birthday has come again this year. As a chronic sufferer of vanity I wish it would take a couple years off and allow me to stay young for a just a little bit longer. I took the day off work because I hate working on my birthday, its a real downer. Instead I started a new book (finally) and spent the afternoon working on a job application. Ironically the application is for my own job as it is about to go from temporary to permanent and has been opened to public competition.
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Friday, May 11, 2007
Amusement Park Paramount and Daewoo are apparently planning to construct a new fun park in Korea. What fun! Not to disparage existing fun parks in Korea such as Seoul Land, Everland and Lotteworld - all fun places (although sometimes they are funny rather than fun). But a world-class fun park would be just the ticket for Korea. I imagine it would be something like the Warner Bros Movie World in Australia which is a great, world-class theme park. Monday, May 07, 2007
Does this record ever end? As One Free Korea likes to point out - we are still waiting for North Korea to shut down its nuclear plant and invite the IAEA inspectors in. The longer this drags on we can expect to revert to the endless articles arguing between diplomacy versus hardliners. At what stage should the US declare the negotiations a failure and what policy should the US adopt in response. To answer such a big question would take more time than my lazy fingers could be bothered typing. So I'll just sum up some random ideas: The core of the matter, as I see it, lies in the absence of any other feasible option. Talks are likely to stall, fail, be rejuvenated, breakthrough, progress, stall, fail in an seemingly endless cycle. I see that we are currently at 'stall' stage of the broken record of DPRK nuclear negotiations. Its not a good record, its not desirable for anyone, but it is really better than anything else. The record, though broken, is familiar and somewhat stable. As long as both US and DPRK (and the other parties) are seen to be working toward an eventual change of circumstance then the chance of accidental or intended conflict is reduced. In this way, the agreement never actually has to reach its full potential. In fact, its main job is simply to prevent a worse situation rather than to herald in a better situation. The kind of change that is desired of DPRK cannot be achieved by resolving the nuclear crisis - it is resolved when the DPRK no longer exists. The talks are a good option for both sides. The DPRK, while not wanting to give up its nuclear program, can still oil and food for promising to do so. Even though we are all fairly certain by now that the DPRK will not give up the nuclear program. In return the US is seen to be actively trying to engage and work with the DPRK to find a peaceful resolution. In addition to avoiding a rise in hostility it also helps the US look less jingoistic than it has in other notable foreign policy areas. Nobody really 'benefits' but nobody really 'loses' either - it just goes on and on and on. So what happens? The record plays and we wait. We wait for something, outside the talks, that is actually going to disturb the status quo; hopefully for the better. I hope that somehow the regime will implode with minimal blood loss and ample warning to alert an appropriate policy response. Or that the North Korean people will get a clue and rise up against the regime, or that a power struggle in the top ranks will dispose of the Kim dynasty and enter a new period of reform/or questioning of the part of the people, or that China decides to allow North Korean asylum-seekers to be processed provoking a much needed channel of 'exit', etc, etc. The nuclear crisis cannot be solved as long as DPRK exists but I don't see that the US has the ability (other than unacceptable military power) to affect the kind of change needed. It has to come from within. Especially given the very sensitive geo-political situation crowded by so many big powers wanting to make sure the end result suits their own national interest in that area. In the meantime, we are stuck listening to the record one more time. Monday, April 16, 2007
Analysis Aidan Foster-Carter has got an interesting commentary piece on the BBC website regarding the recent passing of the 60-day deadline. Response to Joshua of One Free Korea: Joshua commented to my post 'why the rush?' and asked why I think the shut-down would take a year? He also noted that "we can always place responsibility on our own expectation of timely compliance, lower the standard again, and preserve any deal at the small cost of its very significance". He also points out that both Chris Hill and the DPRK knew the deadline was feasible when they signed. To which I might respond: As you noted in your post on the Tong Kim article (couldn't find your link sorry but had skimmed through it earlier) we can understand that it takes but a day to actually close a nuclear plant. In this context, 60 days may seem very generous indeed. However, when I argue that 60 days is too short a time, I do not refer to the matter of flicking a switch. I am referring to the process of 'negotiation - agreement - implementation'. I also factor in time to counter and respond to the delaying tactics of the DPRK. I feel that it would be remiss not to do so because I think we can find no (or few) examples of when the DPRK has proceeded from negotiation to agreement to implementation in a prompt manner and in the spirit of good will. I said one year only as a ball park figure and would happily take counter responses that another time period, longer than 60 days, would be enough time. With regard to lowering our expectations at the cost of the very significance of the deal, I agree with you in part. Having to adjust and lower expectations does undermine the significance of the initial deal made. But I would argue that perhaps our expectations should not have been so high in the first instance. Having low expectations that are meet might be preferable than having to lower expectations. Having to lower expectations, especially publicly, has the added negative aspect of making the US look weak and/or a patsy to the DPRK's demands. And we need to ask ourselves: did Chris Hill and the DPRK both really know the deadline was feasible when they signed? I am first interested in why you refer to Chris Hill - a person and the DPRK - a nation? I guess that it means you think Chris Hill had far more room to negotiate the deal for the US than the counterpart in the DPRK? Rather than know the deal's timeline was feasible it could also mean that both sides were facing different pressures to get a deal; any deal. And that they both considered that making a deal that might be less than perfect (or indeed likely to fail) would be preferable to no deal at all. As I have stated earlier, I don't know why they settled on 60 days, it seems quite strange to me that the negotiators would put that kind of limit on themselves. Sixty days does give a chance for things to move along. Even though the deadline hasn't been met we see signs that things will still proceed with the agreement regardless. Which brings me back to my first claim that rather than put deadlines that will make everyone look bad and undermine the significance of the agreement, why not just work in good faith to get the agreement implemented in whatever time it takes to do so? Surely an implemented agreement in the future is better than the alternatives? I suspect, Joshua, that you do not agree with me at all on that final point. Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Tick Tock The 60 day deadline in the agreement for North Korea's nuclear disarmament is rapidly approaching. It is tense times to see if it can be met. The main stumbling bloc has been the frozen fund in Macau but that seems to have become un-frozen. But will North Korea act promptly to close its main nuclear reactor by Saturday? I, for one, am agog with anticipation to see what will happen. At a guess I think North Korea will do some kind of 'closing' of a nuclear site that probably won't satisfy the US but will be enough to get past the deadline into stage II. Japan is far less optimistic and has extended its sanctions against North Korea for six months, amid growing doubts that Pyongyang will close its key nuclear reactor by this Saturday's deadline.(that is quoted from the Sydney Morning Herald, April 11, 2007. For some reason it won't link). Although it seems Japan's pessimism is based more on lack of progress on the Japan abductees issue rather than evidence that North Korea is about to re-neg on its side of the bargain. Ireland I just got back from a short trip to Ireland. That was my second visit to that most beautiful country. We attended a conference in Dublin over the weekend before joining a 3-day tour around the southern half of the island. My camera decided to have hissy fit during the trip so I got no photos but my sister had her camera so there may be some photos later on. Highlights were the cliffs of Moher, and drinking guinness. The tour group we went with was predominantly young so each night we got dropped off at a pub and told the directions to local clubs to dance the nights away, which we did. Nicholas Eberstadt's new-ish book I notice that Nicholas Eberstadt is having a book forum for his new book: The North Korean Economy: between crisis and catastrophe. I regret to inform Mr Eberstadt that my free signed copy seems to have been lost in the mail so I can't make any comments on the book or indeed post it on the very popular 'currently reading' portion of my blog site. Thursday, March 22, 2007
Why the Rush? Very unsurprisingly the six-party talks are running into a spot of bother. The North Koreans are insisting that the money from the Macau Bank be transferred to a China bank before any more talks occur. They walked out until this happens. In the meantime, the Japan-DPRK bi-lateral chat also didn't go well and were cut short. These delays are putting strain on an already tight deadline. The crux of the problem, as I see it, is the 60 day marker date. After years of negotiations and delays and walk outs it logically follows that the next phase is going to progress in a similar way; ie; slowly. Saying that so many things are going to be done in 60 days may make sense in terms of wanting to show commitment and to get a positive start on things. However, in makes no sense in the context of negotiations with DPRK to think that anything is going to happen quickly and smoothly. By setting a much more generous time-line the negotiators would have more time to smooth things out when disagreements arise and to allow time to handle any dispute that may come up (such as now). Conversely, if things did go smoothly and quickly, it wouldn't stop groups getting things done ahead of schedule. Sixty days is too tight a deadline for the kind of complex negotiations that are still needed in the six-party forum (and the smaller working groups). After so many years of absolutely no progress we can surely afford to be careful and slow in this new phase. Stressing everyone out with tight deadlines seems very counterproductive in this setting. Instead of sixty-days maybe a year would make more sense. It will probably end up taking that long anyway. Just as an aside: after reading some other blogs, notably DPRK Studies and One Free Korea (see side for links) I would like to clarify my negativity. I do NOT think that the failure of these talks is inevitable; I think it is likely but not inevitable. I think the two greatest threats to progress are the deadlines set (60 days) and Japan's focus on abductees, which I believe is isolating them and setting a precedent for countries to pull out over specific domestic concerns at the expense of the greater goal that needs to be achieved. That said, these are not insurmountable and we already know that DPRK will make things difficult. By being aware of the dangers and likely stumbling blocs in advance there is no reason for these talks to fail in the same way the Agreed Framework did. Tuesday, March 20, 2007
New Link - a blog focusing on migrant workers A very useful comment was posted alerting me to a blog that is interested in migrant workers in Korea. I have added it to the side bar. - Two Koreas. As some readers may know, South Korea has a poor record in its treatment of migrant workers. This became tragically evident when the Yeosu Immigration Detention Centre went up in flames killing about 9 detainees. This could easily have been avoided (or mitigated) had the right number of guards been on duty, had the fire and safety equipment worked and had the guards been more alert to their duties in ensuring the safe and timely evacuation on the detainees. Possibly the worst part of this story is the government's attempts to blame the fire on a detainee (who persihed) rather than to use this tragedy as a catalyst for improving conditions in all immigration detention centers and perhaps rethinking their approach to detention of migrant workers ie: arbitrary detention and deportation of undocument migrant workers. Tuesday, March 13, 2007
In Your own Words A webcast of Christopher Hill speaking about the recent agreement with North Korea and what it is and what it isn't, is available at the Brookings website. There is also mention of a new publication by Jack Pritchard coming out soon. There is a sixty day 'To Do' list for initial progress. In the first thirty days there should be a meeting of each of the working groups: a denuclearistion working group, an economic and energy working group, a Northeast Asia security working group and two bi-lateral groups (US-DPRK and Japan-DPRK). There is also a plan to do something on the Banco Delta Asia Bank in Macau. We already know that DPRK is hoping to see that latter issue resolved very quickly. In addition to the meetings, in the sixty days the reactors should be shut and sealed, international observers should be on the ground in DPRK and the denuclearisation group should have a finalised list all DPRK nuclear programs. There should be some progress in each of the working groups and the first shipment of 50,000 tons of oil should be done. That would conclude the first-phase. The post-60 days phase would include further oil shipments (950,000 tons) over a period of time. Interestingly, there is a cost-sharing arrangement for these shipments that Japan has opted out of until they see how things develop. I suspect that progress for them depends a great deal on progess in the abductions issue. The full DPRK list of its nuclear programs to abandon would be finalised and agreed on, and DPRK would disable (not just shut but fully put out of commission) existing facilities. The Q&A part, which is the bulk of the webcast is very interesting as well. Sunday, March 11, 2007
Fatty Butter!? Japan's Education Minister has likened human rights with fatty butter. Too much fatty butter will cause a metabolic disorder. One presume that he means that too much respect for the protection of the rights of inidivuals will make a nation sick. How full protection of human rights can cause national-level illness was not explained. I'm not sure what is meant here by 'fatty' butter. Does he mean butter that is not 'fat reduced' or 'lite' or something like that? If he is referring to natural full milk, creamy butter as 'fatty' then I take even greater offense at his comments. The comments are a disconcerting glance into the state of human rights education in Japan. Its also worrying that the Education Minister mentioned 'only' eating fatty butter. I don't think its good for the Education Minister to be so idiotic to think that anyone would only eat fatty butter. Or that using food and human rights in a analogy makes any sense. Tuesday, March 06, 2007
Peace with North Korea - doomed to fail? There has been quite a bit of optimism of late over the recent 'breakthrough' in the six-party negotiations. North Korea's Kim Kye Gwan is visiting New York to hash out more of the details with Christopher Hill and all seems to be go. At least for now.... Black clouds, however, are beginning to descend ominously on the horizon. Firstly are the pessimists who claim this agreement is not different, or not different enough, from the Agreed Framework, which ended quite badly. Another is speculation over what the inspectors may find in Korea when they get there and whether we are now going to be subject to a 'play-down' in the seriousness of the threat that has presumably loomed over our heads these past years. And the third one comes from the interesting paragraph at the end of the article: Washington’s suggestion that it may drop North Korea from its state sponsors of terrorism list if negotiations go well has raised concern with Tokyo.. Japan has urged the United States not to remove North Korea from the list until it provides an explanation for the kidnapping of Japanese citizens by North Korean agents during the 1970s and 1980s. Japan insists it will not participate in the Six-Party Talk aid package to North Korea until the abduction issue is resolvedThis presents a problem all too similar to one that contributed to the demise of the Agreed Framework. I refer to squabbles and conditionality imposed by the supposed allies upon eacth other. Insisting that progress can't be made until the Government of Japan becomes a domestic hero is highly unreasonable. Moreso because emotional cases like the abduction never have an 'explanation' that is going to be truly acceptable. Comfort Women Occidentalism has got a LONG post about the current push to pass a resolution in the US Congress (non-binding) to tell the Government of Japan to apologise for the military sexual slavery system run during the Pacific War, otherwise known as Comfort Women (CW). He and a link to Ampontan, who is quoted a length and linked, do not seem overly supportive of this resolution for a variety of reasons: the woman testifying is a liar (or has a bad memory); the translation of the GofJ's statement on the issue was poorly done and did not adequately reflect the sentiments intended; Japan is an ally of America so they shouldn't say anything that might upset them. These sorry excuses for insightful posting are a real shame. Thursday, January 25, 2007
US Special Envoy interested in promoting human rights in North Korea seeks international mate with similar interests for friendship or possible relationship US Special Envoy for human rights in North Korea, Mr. Jay Lefkowitz is in UK and gave a public hearing talk last night hosted by the Henry Jackson Society at the House of Commons. He spoke for about thirty minutes on the terrible human rights situation in DPRK and discussed the need for greater widespread awareness of this situation. This was followed by Q&A on how to make this more public and the challenge of keeping people interested in what appears to be a long-term struggle to improve human rights in North Korea. Questions focused mostly on China's responsibility and how to get them to do more and what countries like US, UK, etc can actually do about this situation given DPRK's refusal to even admit that they have human rights abuses in their country. The main conclusions (as I see them) were the challenge of getting more information about North Korea that could then be used to make the issue more attention-grabbing to a larger international audience, getting information into North Korea to try and let people know more about what is outside the North's borders, and putting real pressure on North Korea to accept the UN Special Rapporteur to visit the country. I agreed strongly with his main premise that, those countries with diplomatic ties with North Korea should be putting more pressure on them to do something about human rights and to allow the UN greater access. Sunday, January 21, 2007
Six-Party Talks - its good to talk but lets not expect anything US and North Korea met in Berlin to discuss the nuclear issue. I am not very familiar with this meeting (having not read much news on vacation). However, it does seem that there are rumours of some agreement. What that agreement is about is hush-hush for now, giving rise to doubts to its robustness or tangibility. Maybe it was an agreement not to disagree just yet. Meanwhile, Hyeong Jung Park at the Brookings Institute has written a piece on why he thinks the six-party talks will not get very far. He argues that the recent softening of the US line will not be good for the talks for several reasons. First, North Korea was probably pleased with the resumption of the talks, but only because the meetings effectively brought to an end the increasing tide of criticism and rising tension that followed the nuclear test last October. Second, the North Koreans would likely think their persistence and the detonation of a nuclear device forced the U.S. to agree to what North Korea had demanded from the start: a phased, give-and-take resolution of its nuclear weapons program. Third, North Korea would think the overall situation regarding negotiations with the U.S. was in its favor, and that the U.S. may further soften its position the longer the talks dragged on. ... Fourth, while maintaining its existing nuclear weapons until "normalization of relations with the U.S." at an uncertain future date, North Korea would make use of the long and winding denuclearization negotiations to pursue two long term objectives: to lessen its dependency on China and on South Korea by improving and expanding its relations with the U.S. and Japan; and to acquire an equal footing with the U.S. in security matters in order to weaken South Korea's position in discussions on establishing a permanent peace regime on the Korean peninsula. Fifth, if giving up additional plutonium is to be North Korea's sacrifice, Pyongyang would expect compensation no less than what it received in the Geneva Agreed Framework in 1994.He also predicts Pyongyang to suggest high level inter-Korean talks separate to the six-party talks as a way of ensuring that South Korean aid is not linked to progress in the six-party talks. The idea being that, by making sure that it (North Korea) can keeps its economy relative stable despite sanctions, they can hold out longer in the multi-lateral negotiation process for more perks. Its an article well-worth a read and one with which I mostly agree with. But then again, I don't know anyone who is predicting meaningful success in the six-party talks. The most optimistic view is the official lines of vague 'agreement' and hope for a long-term solution. Back from vacation Back from Australia where the weather was unseasonably, but welcomingly cool. It was a very quiet time but I did manage to put on a bit of weight by overeating during the festive season.
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