Kathreb

Monday, July 28, 2003

After a busy week of attending conferences during which time I had no chance to blog, I am now on vacation during which time I have no desire to blog. I'll be back in August.

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Monday, July 14, 2003

Sunday was a beautiful picturesque day in Korea's capital. One of the those rare and greatly appreciated days when the sky is blue and the clouds are puffy and white. On waking up I could hardly wait to get out and enjoy the sun. But the first thing I had to do was send annoying chirpy text messages to my friends about what a great day it was.

I decided that it would be the perfect day to revisit Gyeongbuk Palace. I had heard that some further restoration work had taken place since my last visit some years ago. I went to investigate and was not disappointed. Alot of work had been done and it is really looking impressive.

I also go to see the changing of the guards ceremony being played out. But they need to drop the four language explanation and just put out some multi-lingual pamphlets explaining the steps as it takes all together way too long.

After wandering through the palace gardens for some time I made my way over to the Seoul Museum of History to check out the Napoleon and Josephine Exhibition. I was not overly pleased to find the whole thing in Korean (surely there is a ready English version that could shared the space) but I persevered and told myself to view it as a good chance to practice my Korean. In the end I found it very interesting and was even able to learn stuff about the couple that I hadn't known before by reading the Korean text. Hoorah! The only other downside was that after trapsing around Gyeonbuk Palace my poor footsies were not pleased with having to walk around the exhibition.

I had to cancel my plan to go for a late afternoon rollerblading session as my feet refused be party to such activity. Maybe next weekend.

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Saturday, July 12, 2003

Shifting the Diplomatic Effort

There are some troubling signs afoot in regards to the dilemma of how to deal with North Korea. I am referring in part to the continued efforts to gain support for the blockade idea but more than that, I refer to US moving away from forming key alliances with critical countries such as China, Russia, Japan and South Korea. Instead it seems to be trying to gather support from it Iraqi allies including UK, Australia, Poland, Spain, etc. Why is this troubling? Firstly, these countries arguably will only do the bididng of the US and will stand behind US serving only to make US look more willing to go to war. Secondly, bringing in extra parties among a group that can't find consensus anyway is not going to increase goodwill among the wanna-be Korean Peace Coalition countries if US tries to reinforce the ranks with its own supporters.

My main beef is with Australia. Its 'yes sir, how high sir?' attitude toward the US is sad. The recent attendance of John Bolton to Brisbane for a security conference and Australia's immediate acquiesence to his proposals for joining the blockade was typical of this attitude. As an Australian I feel particularly disappointed in John Howard's bellicose approach to foreign policy. Australia should not even be commenting on assisting the US in a blockade until the nation's directly concerned have agreed on a common approach to dealing with North Korea. If US demands on five way talks and multilateralism in dealing with the situation then they should abide by that stance. Seeking outside approval and token assistance for what is ulitmately a unilateral approach will not do anything to diffuse the nucleaur issue. Australia should be smarter and more circumspect than to act like such a lackey. John Howard is due to arrive in Seoul next week and it should be very interesting viewing to see how him and Roh discuss the blockade issue.

South Korea is now trying to encourage UK to take a mediating role. I am skeptical about the usefulness of such a suggestion. Firstly, Mr Blair has enough troubles over the no-show WMDs in Iraq to be commiting the necessary time and attention to playing such a role between North Korea and the "Korean Peace Coalition". Secondly, UK also is too much US's lackey to be objective enough in this position. A mediating figure may be a good idea but Mr Blair is not a viable candidate.

Moving away from that topic. The economy is in the gutter. The country has or is about to slip into recession. Interest rates were cut by 0.25% to stem the tide and the supplementary budget is in the pipelines but some are arguing it is too little too late. Perhaps interest rates could've been cut earlier but the supp budget was a given from the start. The country issues a supp budget every year over unforeseen events beyond their control. This years recent hit of negative press over SK, corruption and labour strikes didn't help them but then again, these kind of 'unforeseen events' happen every year. I like the bit in the article that asks why the Bank of Korea and KDI have had to slash their forecasts so drastically and why they didn't see this coming when it was so obvious a while ago that the eocnomy was in trouble. Silly question. Both the Bank of Korea and KDI are overseen by the government which is hardly going to let them publish anything so negative as the truth.

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Wednesday, July 09, 2003

Funny-Guy Weldon and the Whacky Korean Peace Initiative

A couple of blogs have already commented on Funny-guy Weldon's Whacky Peace Plan including Slate, The Marmot's Hole, Incestuous Amplification and others who I probably missed. In my opinion, blog sources far and away exceeded news sources for much-needed criticism on this ridiculous 'initiative'. Here is why I thought the plan was the best laugh I've had in a while.

Firstly, in the opening paragraphs Funny-guy Weldon tries to expound the critical interests of both sides. He informs us that US seeks the eradication of the nuclear program and removal of the threat of nuclear proliferation and selling of technology to terrorist organisations and/or States. North Korea wants normalisation of relations, non-interference in economic ties with South Korea and Japan and see the issue of regime change as the determining factor in whether a peaceful resolution to the current stand-off is possible. Yet, as I shall attempt to argue, the peace plan itself is tantamount to a regime change.

Step one is a five part, one-year plan that begins with the pointless signing of a non-aggression pact. The caveats that US would demand of such a pact would render it a non-viable and rightly so. As we already know of the Bush regime, they themselves are not shy to back out of an agreement once it ceases to be of use to their interests. By the same token, North Korea would be more stupid than we give them credit for to be appeased by a one-year non-aggression pact. But lets say we get past that point.

North Korea has never, and would never allow 'full and unimpeded inspections of its nuclear facilities'. Even when a member a the NNPT it didn't allow the complete inspections required of it. So to think it would now, after further development of its nuclear materials, allow such inspection is not rational. This would only bring the US to say, in a similar way they did with Iraq, that despite the presence of inspectors, they are not being cooperative and allowing the kind of access demanded. At which point the US would threaten or in fact back out of the non-agression pact....yada, yada, yada, back to square one.

A funding level of some US$3-5 billion should be provided by the (hee hee) "Korean Peace Coalition" (hahahaha!!) consisting of US, DPRK, South Korea, Japan, Russia and China (cause we all know how well this lot get on). Lets just remind ourselves that most of the delay for the 1994 Framework Agreement was over funding arguments, and indeed one of the largest barriers in the initial negotiations was between US, Japan, South Korea (and EU) over who on earth would shell out the cash.

And at the conclusion of these steps, US would open a mission in Pyongyang and so would conclude the first stage. I suggest they don't start looking for real estate for such a move just yet. But lets move take a look at stage two, just for fun of it.

Firstly, the non-aggression pact would become permanent. Okay, for fun, lets assume that it does so we can move on. US would like to see North Korea agree, not just to NPT, but other intrusive inspections and commitments including the Missile Technology Control Regime and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Does someone need to point out that a country that 'just wants to be left alone' and feels that its very sovereignty is threatened by such treaties, is not likely to concur with this idea?

But here we come to my absolute favourite part. Weldon recommends direct inter-parliamentary relationship with members of North Korea's Supreme People's Assembly for the purpose of developing a plan to implement a broad range of comprehensive recommendations in the areas of: agricultural development, cultural/education development, defence and security, energy/natural resources, environmental cooperation, health care, judicial/legal systems, local governments, science and technology, space and aeronautics. I nearly fell off my chair when I read that list.

I barely know where to start. Firslty, it would appear that Weldon is not aware that the Supreme People's Assembly does not make policy and is a rubber stamp group for Dear Leader Kim, rendering all discussions of the above topics useless. Second, we could assume that the last thing a regime gripping on to power is going to do is let its rubber stamp assembly mix with loud and proud proponents of democracy and for that matter, the enemy. This act alone would destabilise the DPRK's rule and if such changes as US hopes to bring about would occur, it would ultimately result in a complete change in the regime (which noted earlier is the paramount issue for North Korea). My personal favourite topics are defence and security, local government and space and aeronautics. South Korea didn't get local autonomy until 1995 yet we expect a totalitarian regime is going to bring in local government!? Does anyone else get an image of Weldon writing this plan on the plane trip to Pyongyang sucking back a few stress-relieving drinks?

But I have written (and laughed) enough. In short, funny-guy Weldon's whacky peace plan is an ill-conceived joke that belongs in the trash along with the idea of a blockade and sanctions.

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Saturday, July 05, 2003

OOOOHHHHHH, that makes me soooooo mad!!!! Joongang Ilbo published another article about Korean-themed blogs to appease those left out...AND THEY LEFT ME OUT!!!!! For the second time!!! This goes beyond self-opinionated prig level. Their blatant lax attitude to getting all the information about Korean blogs and half-arsed attempt to make up for their first mindless bungle is infruiating.

Otherwise I've been extraordinarily but happily busy and will continue to be so for the next week or two, which explains my less frequent blogging over the past week.

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